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BofA thinks inflation coupled with the unstable banking industry and cooling of the job market will push gold higher, faster. $2100 this quarter to be specific.
Last month, US employers added just 236,000 jobs, coming in below expectation amid the Federal Reserve’s yearlong rate-hiking campaign. Their goal is to slow inflation, but job growth has been keeping that target out of reach.
With job growth slowing down, it is likely that the Fed will slowly stop its rate hike. This will make way for the US Dollar to come down from its artificially elevated price.
However, it is not just economic variables that are pushing gold higher. There is a huge problem with supply.
The Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications of the Autonomous University of Barcelona and the Higher Council for Scientific Research, have set a date for the disappearance of the rare metal. They said we will see the last of gold in 2050, just 27 years from now.
One of the authors of the study, Josep Peñuelas, said that the annual growth of the consumption and extraction process of gold is around 3%.
The supply side isn’t looking good, either. According to the data from Australia’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources or DISER, the gold supply will go down after 2022, noting that early gold production may just be a result of the post-pandemic trend. COVID-19 has halted many miners and gold producers from fulfilling their usual gold output. As they catch up, the supply trend will go back to normal, resulting in a decline. Australia is the second biggest gold producer in the world.
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