Inflation Could Rise 15 Percent | What Causes Inflation | What Is The Real Inflation Rate


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Analysts at Saxo Bank said inflation could go up to 15%. Let me make it clear. The current inflation rate computation is manipulated to make inflation look like it is manageable. Even with that, Saxo Bank is still saying it will go up to 15%.

That means real inflation will probably be closer to 30%.

Reuters interviewed Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO at Saxo Bank. Jakobsen said that it is by no means a forecast of what’s to come but rather a deep dive in ‘known unknowns’.

However, Jakobsen emphasized that the prediction is not outrageous at all. He pointed out to a possible energy crisis this winter combined with supply chain issues, rising rents and crucially, wages going through the roof.

The 15% figure is based on the assumption that every inflation cycle tends to go above its past historic peak so in this case, 15% would be just above that of the early 80s.

For Jakobsen, the swift shift in the Fed’s stance on inflation reflects the realisation that main street in America is about to feel the pain of rising prices biting into their purchasing power with all the political consequences it might entail.

And what would 15% inflation mean for investors? Stagflation. Stagflation is a term used to describe slow economic growth at a time of high inflation.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank added that a 15% inflation will be good for gold. The possibility that the Federal Reserve loses control over inflation will continue to support gold prices through 2022.

Hea added that If the Fed tried to get in front of the curve, it would create a new recession.

Currently, the gold market is still below $2000 and there are many reasons for this including lack of investor interest as the Federal Reserve looks to start tightening monetary policy next year. There are growing market expectations for the U.S. central bank to start raising interest rates in June, with a total of four hikes next year.

However, rising inflation, volatile crypto market, and threatening omicron infection rate will force people to refocus towards more stable assets. This could push gold to cross its all time high.

To understand this better, we prepared a 2022 economic pointers for investors. This is not meant to be a financial advice. It’s just a set of development we foresee with data that you can use to add to your research. Go to your financial advisor armed with all these info and I guarantee you will be able to make better investment decisions.

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