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Many are anticipating an economic calamity if Congress fails to act on the debt ceiling.
So, what should an investor do? If history is any guide, we have little to worry about—Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling 80 or so times since 1960—but if the past year and a half has taught us anything, it’s that we should expect the unexpected.
That said, the odds of the U.S. defaulting on its debt are quite low, not zero but low.
The current crop of politicians likely learned their lesson during the 2011 debt crisis, when the S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and the Dow suffered a 5.6% one-day drop. The senior politicians back then—Pelosi, Biden, Schumer, and McConnell—were the same as the ones in charge now. Even if they approach the edge of default, we expect them to back off.
For those curious as to what the debt ceiling actually is, here is a little background. The debt ceiling was put in place in 1917 to allow the government to borrow money to help pay for World War I. It didn’t turn into a political issue until 1953, in the Senate battle over funding the construction of the U.S. interstate highway system.
Secretary Yellen is pleading with Congress to raise the debt ceiling immediately, warning that the U.S. Treasury will run out of money around October 18 if Congress doesn’t act.
In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Yellen writes that if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, almost 50 million seniors will stop receiving their Social Security checks, U.S. troops will go unpaid, and the U.S. will emerge as a permanently weakened nation. She warns of equally dire financial consequences: the country falling into recession and millions of jobs lost, with the likely increase in interest rates affecting almost every citizen who wants to purchase anything traditionally bought with credit including homes and cars.
Not raising the debt ceiling would destroy the U.S. reputation for creditworthiness while hurting the dollar’s standing as the world’s reserve currency. Contrary to some opinions, it would not reduce government spending: 97% of the debt due is for expenses incurred under past administrations.
So, what is an investor to do?
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