What Does Inflation Do To Your Bonds | Effects Of Inflation on Bonds | How Much Bonds Gain


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Despite manipulation of Consumer Price Index computation that’s meant to pull inflation rate down, we still crossed the 6% mark. And now people think that we will most likely cross the 7%?

And if that happens, how will that affect our investments.

Before I proceed, let me do a disclaimer. The 6% is based in a manipulated computation that aims to pull the number lower than the actual situation… to make us all feel better.

I personally estimate real inflation to be above 10%, some experts go up to as much as 15%.

Now, with the worsening situation, some professional economists are expecting 6.8% for the November figure but some still think that there’s a good chance the 7% line will be crossed.

How does it affect your savings? If you have a Ten-year IOUs issued by the U.S. Treasury with a 1.5% yield, your real yield—coupon minus inflation—is worse than negative 5%.

The same government that issues low-rate bonds and creates high-rate inflation does a third thing to savers. It taxes them. So let’s take a look at real, aftertax returns on ten-year Treasuries.

We are close to the worst situation we have ever been to back in the mid-1980. Back then, ten-year Treasury was paying not much more than 10% and inflation topped 14%.

So, if you were counting on your money from bonds to buy a house or pay for college, things aren’t looking good for you.

There’s money there for sure, and it is more than what you initially put in. However, the value of your money is now gone.

What can you do?

You can’t turn back the time but I personally don’t want to do nothing while our financial system takes whatever I worked hard for.

I am all for diversification and I still encourage people to look into everything but I personally will not rely on bonds alone. I won’t rely on any asset exclusively.

There are different ways to figure real returns. Ideally, you’d adjust the bond yield for future inflation. But I don’t rely on the inflation rate that the government releases. That has taken me nowhere in the past but down.

I stick to the worse case scenario. I compute for 13% to 15%. My yield should be more than that. Is it easy? No. Regularly, I still revisit my portfolio to make sure I am keeping up.

One of the things I always do is add to my hedge which is gold, silver, palladium, and platinum. These precious metals freeze the value of my money. IT guarantees that the $10,000 now, when i convert that to gold or other precious metals, will be able to afford the same things 10 years later.

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