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A recession will happen. It is set to occur this year. Wall Street and Deutsche Bank both predicted it will happen in late 2023 to early 2024.
But there is a silver lining, quite literally.
Silver could actually be our saving grace. Historically, silver prices tend to do well moving into a recession and into the early portion of a recession.
In the beginning of the Great Recession, which officially started in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, the price of silver sat at $11.95/oz. By the end of December 2007, it had jumped to $14.76/oz.
The peak price of silver hit $19.24/oz. at the end of February 2008. Near the end of October 2008. At the close of the Great Recession, the price of silver stood at $13.94/oz.
Toward the end of April 2011, the price of silver skyrocketed to $48.70/oz.
That is a steep climb.
Another driver could be the interest rates. The Fed seems sure that hiking interest rates would cool off the steep climb of commodity prices.
Here is the problem. A lot of the inflationary pressures are coming from the supply side, and supply tends to be less responsive to interest rate changes.
Many companies and industries closed during the pandemic. They are just starting to come back. They have two years worth of catching up to do. That means higher production cost. That will be passed on to consumers.
In other words, companies aren’t supplying new demand. They are simply catching up. No amount of exterior control could stop that. Those demands need to be fulfilled, interest rate hike or no interest rate hike.
Here is another problem. The government is also going to spend a lot of money to fulfill the infrastructure plan of the White House.
In the long run, the infrastructure spending will bring down inflation because it will make delivery more efficient but not right away. While infrastructure is being built, demand for commodities and raw materials will increase.
Given all these factors, I don’t think the economy will collapse. After all, our economy is still far stronger than most countries. Many investors are running to the dollar and to the US with all the uncertainty.
But with the Gross Domestic Product and other economic fundamentals still weak, the US Dollar will continue to weaken. Not that it is something new. Since 1950, the US dollar has lost 90% of its value.
But with the continuous mishandling of our economy, how much faster do you think will the dollar fall?
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