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Evergrande is one of the world’s largest property development businesses. Hui Ya Kan, the owner, is the richest man in China. They are also in technology, automotive, electric vehicles, consumer products, tourism as well as its core finance and real estate businesses.
Its assets at the last count were totalled at just over $147 billion. So what’s the problem? Their debt-to-asset ratio, On average, they have a score of 6 and acceptable score is 0.3.
The creditors are starting to collect. And this is what the Chinese government doesn’t want to happen because Evergrande is subject to the government-owned finance The People’s Bank of China and the country’s Insurance Regulatory Commission.
The problem began in the beginning of this year, the Chinese government tightened credit and capped mortgage loan amounts. They wanted to avoid a property bubble in the cities. They knew people were going to have problems paying their mortgages because of the Coronavirus crisis.
Prices jumped so high the Chinese government had to step in again and raise mortgage rates. The result? An even lower sell-through rates.
Shares fell 60% this year and are now at a 4-year-low. And then the Chinese government asked Evergrande to pay down 40% of its debts in one go.
The debts haven’t been paid.
CNBC reported that S&P had started red-penning the business back in August.
Their workers are also protesting for non payment of wages.
Finally, this morning, JP Morgan’s target price for Evergrande shares nosedived from $7.20 to $2.80
There are two outcomes for this scenario.
China doesn’t bailout Evergrande in December or China “bails out” Evergrande — or rather, is liquidated by China/CCP who go on to own the company.
Either way, Evergrande’s problems have coincided with waning investor appetite for stocks: The S&P 500 fell 5.2% between Sept. 2 and 20. But Evergrande isn’t the only source of stress.
Economic indicators, for instance, have been going sideways recently. Employers added just 235,000 workers in August, well below market expectations. Retail sales have jumped around while consumer confidence dropped to a six-month low.
Rising inflation continues, and many believe the Federal Reserve will soon announce that it will begin to buy fewer bonds starting in November. This so-called tapering, while not as important as raising interest rates, does signal that the Fed is inching away from its emergency policy of pumping in a lot of easy money to help the economy recover from Covid fallout.
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