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Welcome to the national debt series. In the first part, we talked about the basics, why the US gets into debt and how.
Now, let’s look into the biggest US Debtors and how that can affect investors like us.
By the end of 2021, the federal government had $28.43 trillion in federal debt. While the $30 trillion figure, by itself, doesn’t seem to mean anything, it will help if we peg it against certain measures.
First, Social Security is the government’s biggest debtor… by a long shot. Social Security trusts held $2.908 trillion in Treasurys as of 2021. The next largest agency was the Military Retirement Fund at more than $1 trillion. Other large holders of debt include the Office of Personnel Management Retirement, and Medicare.
Listen and listen well… If you were to add the debt held by Social Security and all the retirement and pension funds, almost half of the U.S. Treasury debt is held in trust for retirement. Current and future retirees would be hurt the most if the U.S. ever defaulted on its debt.
That’s you, your partner, parents, your kids…that’s every American.
Next is the public debt. Public debt is about as large as the economy. In a decade or less, it’ll be larger than any time since World War II. Imagine yourself. You own $5000 in assets but you also have a debt of $5000. That’s where our entire country is right now.
We owe Japan more than $1.3 trillion in U.S. Treasurys. It is the largest foreign holder of the national debt. The second-largest holder is China. We owe them $1.07 trillion. Third place is UK at $699 billion. The good news is that both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their own currencies. This helps to keep their exports to the U.S. affordable, which helps their economies grow.
The United States’ ratio of debt to GDP, the measure most commonly used to gauge a country’s level of indebtedness, places it among the most indebted countries in the world.
According to data gathered by the World Bank last year, the country with the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio is Japan, which carries debt equivalent to 257% of its economic output. Other developed economies with very high debt-to-GDP ratios include Greece, at 207%, and Italy, at 155%.
The US comes in at 12th place with a ratio of 133%.
Here is the kicker. $30 trillion in debt is beyond ridiculous but most politicians don’t really care. Why? Because they won’t be paying for it.
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